Ventura County Reporter editor Bill Lascher helpfully brought his paper’s cover story to my attention. Anyone interested in the political fate of California State Senate District 19 should read the article.
The race for the district 19 state senate seat will likely be dramatic, writes reporter Saundra Sorenson, with Jim Dantona running for the Democratic nomination and Tony Strickland running on the Republican side.
Or, the current holder of the district 19 seat, Sen. Tom McClintock, could run again if the Term Limits and Legislative Reform Act ballot measure passes. If not, he is barred from another term.
McClintock thinks that he would run if the amendment passes “I fight for my corner, and I leave when the pub closes,” he said, quoting Winston Churchill.
Another wrinkle is the possible candidacy of former state assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, a Democrat, who has not said whether she will run, but will let us know in a few weeks, according to the article. The Ventura County Star reports that she will decide in early October. She might take the wind out of Dantona’s sails.
Both Dantona and Strickland are likely following the same strategy to win their parties’ nominations: jump in early and raise a lot of cash. This erects a substantial barrier-to-entry for any challenger, as Fred Thompson will probably soon find out with his presidential candidacy.
District residents should not vote for Strickland. He is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, much too conservative for middle-of-the-road Ventura County. He is the California campaign manager for Mitt Romney. He “wholeheartedly” supports Rep. Elton Gallegly’s unfortunate run for the 24th congessional district.
Strickland’s main issue, it seems, is the Republicans’ favorite: stopping illegal immigration. Auditing agencies that provide illegal immigrants with benefits was one of his top priorities as a candidate for state controller, an election he lost.
Although Strickland apparently does not have a campaign website where voters can check out his views on the issues, or as is more likely with campaign websites, be flummoxed by its vagueness, it’s pretty clear what we’d be getting if we voted for him.
Now that the backlash against President George W. Bush and his failed policies is in full steam, Strickland’s conservatism hangs around his neck like a millstone.
As for the race between Dantona and Jackson, this blogger is undecided.
Jackson said her priorities, were she to run, would be “reforming the healthcare system…protecting the environment, protecting public health, public education.” And, she said, public safety.
Dantona claims to be the centrist candidate, a smart strategy in an evenly split district. He stresses his ability to work with both parties. He mentions jobs, education, and “putting food on the table” as his priorities. Dantona is concerned about healthcare too, but, troublingly, cites outsourcing as a scapegoat, implying that he’d like to roll back tax benefits for companies that outsource jobs and maintain headquarters in California.
District 19 includes the Conejo Valley and the cities of Thousand Oaks, Moorpark, Simi Valley, Camarillo, Ventura, Ojai, and parts of Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties, including Carpinteria, Santa Barbara, Solvang, and Vandenburg Air Force Base.
It has a slim Republican majority of voters: 40.71% Republican versus 36.09% Democrat. This is a small percentage that can be overcome, either by the right candidate or the most vigorous get-out-the-vote effort. As for the latter, which party will step up to the plate?
My profuse thanks, by the way, to blogger Brian Dennert, who mentioned this blog on his, “Brian Dennert here,” which is hosted by the Ventura County Star. Brian’s site is a good place to check out Ventura County political views and events on the left and right.
Here’s a map of District 19, for those of you interested:
5 responses so far ↓
Susan Bowman // September 14, 2007 at 7:28 am
Two days ago I received a call from “The Maguire Group “(hope I spelled that correctly) wanting me to take a survey. I usually say no because I have an unlisted number and I always wonder how these people get your numbers when you are on a national do not call list and pay for an unlisted number but I decided to do it.
Turned out that it was basically over the upcoming Senate race, District 19, and when asked what I thought of the candidates I said I would be voting for Jim Dantona. I than noticed a trend to try and sway my answers to Mr. Strickland. I was directed to answer questions that indicated I was only to consider Mr. Strickland and one other, not Jim Dantona. I told the woman that their poll was self serving and inaccurate. This was the first time I had ever noticed how a poll can be channeled in a specific direction so as to make a person like myself seem like I had answered all the questions in a different direction.
When asked a variety of questions that only contained Mr. Strickland and one other who was not Jim Dantona, I answered neither person. If I would have picked one of the two offered my intentions would have been misconstrued.
Maybe I am naive in these matters but this is not a poll that serves the truth in my opinion.
I would hope to warn anyone who gets a call from these kinds of self serving polls to be careful as they do not serve the truth only their own personal needs.
Laura Winchester // September 14, 2007 at 8:31 am
Hi Mark,
Great new blog, thanks for helping to get the word out for Dems.
The 19th is going to be a great race and is heating up already, as evidenced by Susan’s comments. The Reps, backed by Waste Management, are already doing “push polls” to try to identify areas to attack Dantona, who they are terrified of running against because they know he can beat them in this moderate/conservative leaning district. He hits hard and plays to win.
Just a bit of information re your voter registration stats – I think you’re looking at some old numbers. The district is actually:
40.71 Rep, 36.09 Dem, 18.34 Decline to State. Those numbers are from February 07, and we expect new ones in early October, which will show the Reps losing more ground, Dems and DTS gaining yet again.
Dantona has come out swinging and has been campaigning hard for the past several months. His first big fundraiser is on October 18th, and is being hosted by none other than Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who is flying in from Maryland just for the event. Also featured are several big name CA Dems and leaders. It should be a GREAT event.
Again Mark, thanks again for your blog. Maybe I’ll get a chance to see you at the Waxman event!
Susan Bowman // September 14, 2007 at 11:33 am
I am new to the political world and therefore feel a little insecure when commenting but personally I would be interested in finding out who is behind that poll I took. I asked the woman who said she was from the Maguire Group but she said she did not know. Who paid for this and do these people think we are all stupid as they are an insult to our intelligence.
The woman asked me, “If Jim Dantona was not running than who would you vote for”? I replied that will not be possible since Jim Dantona is running and what a stupid question that was.
As far as I am concerned this is unacceptable and these people who are behind this should be viewed as manipulative and unbelievable.
The reason I am writing this post is to possibly find out who sponsored and paid for this poll so that the people who may take this or hear its results will know they are being manipulated and therefore cannot trust its results or the people who created the poll. In my opinion it is not the Group giving the poll, but the people who hired them and told them what to poll who are the problem. I may be new to the political world but I know how to use mathematical logic to come to the proper conclusion.
Who Is Push Polling Ventura County? « Conejo Valley Democrat // September 14, 2007 at 10:31 pm
[...] 14th, 2007 · No Comments Reader Susan Bowman recently posted a comment that she had received a call from someone purporting to conduct a poll. This bothered her [...]
conejovalleydemocrat // September 15, 2007 at 10:51 am
Thanks Susan and Laura for your comments. See today’s post for my reaction to the push polling incident. Laura, I corrected those old numbers. Thanks for the heads up.
Mark
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